- Economists forecast moderation in factory output, retail sales
- Big data point to solid construction and consumer confidence
China’s next batch of official indicators are expected to signal broadly steady output, while alternative data are showing robust economic activity.
Official releases due Monday will show industrial output and retail sales both dipped slightly last month as credit expansion slowed, while the pace of investment remained unchanged, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Proxies such as excavator sales and bank card transactions also point to steady construction and consumer sentiment.
Policy makers have pledged to cut industrial capacity and excessive borrowing in the world’s second-largest economy, both major tasks that may risk weighing on the expansion. The pace of that easing is gradual for now though, as industries and property developers remain confident, and increasingly-wealthy consumers have become a key stabilizer.
Growth will decelerate in the second half, albeit more moderately than expected before, Zhang Ning, an economist at UBS Group AG in Hong Kong, wrote in a note. “China’s senior leadership made it clear at their recent Financial Work Conference that its ongoing supervisory tightening bid will not be reversing anytime soon and financial risk containment will remain a top policy priority in the coming years.”
Here’s what Monday’s data will show, according to those surveyed:
- Industrial output rose 7.1 percent from a year earlier, versus 7.6 percent in June
- Retail sales expansion from a year earlier edged down to 10.8 percent from 11 percent
- Fixed-asset investment in urban areas rose 8.6 percent from…